Showing posts with label COVID-19. Show all posts
Showing posts with label COVID-19. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 20, 2020

Coronavirus is growing exponentially – here is what that really means

 

Coronavirus is growing exponentially – here is what that really means

Excerpt from Christian Yates, Senior Lecturer in Mathematical Biology, University of Bath

 

This is an optimistic graphic. Even so, if we choose the 50% (middle) exposure rate. It is still eye popping!

For everyone person infected, 4 others will become infected. This is the nature of Pandemics. But what, precisely, is exponential growth? The mathematical definition says that a quantity that increases with a rate proportional to its current size will grow exponentially. This means that as the quantity increases so does that rate at which it grows. The more infected people we have of a disease outbreak, the more people they will infect and the more the cases will rise. As of October 19, we have 8.26M cases. That would tell us the exponential spread would result in over 33M cases in the future.

Recent media reports incorrectly report the increase in COVID-19 with alarm. This, when science predicts the results. The early panic may have caused a slowing (75%+ staying home) while we may have now fallen back to only a 50% reduction.

The point is, that people living in fear because of a seemingly unknown reason for the uptick in cases is simply wrong. People are living with great stress. They need to understand their environment. The purpose of this article.

This pandemic is doing what pandemics do. Following the protocols is the best individuals can do. The scientific community will come up with new antivirals and eventually a vaccine. Until then, we should all remain calm (relatively) while we live through this Global Pandemic.

Sunday, August 30, 2020

What Joe Biden's America Would Look Like In 2021

It is now November 2021, one year after Joe Biden was elected president after a razor-thin election. We have been given a glimpse into the future to see Biden’s America.

Summer 2021 was another scorcher. The rolling brownouts California suffered in 2020 spread throughout the West. Record demand for air conditioning combined with the ongoing closures of coal, nuclear, and even gas-powered electric plants have left millions powerless in these heat waves.

Energy Secretary Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, with the support of President Biden, has permanently extended the airlines’ drastic curtailments of flights, first seen during the late pandemic, in keeping with the Green New Deal they both support. Taxes on gasoline and diesel fuel have shot up to European levels “to discourage internal combustion engine use and to promote jobs in the alternative transportation industry, especially the manufacture of bicycles.”

The Ferguson effect, where law enforcement pulls back in the wake of hostility, lawsuits, and violent crime increases, and seen in 2020 in certain cities such as Seattle, Portland, Chicago, and Minneapolis, has extended to hundreds of major cities. Attorney General Lori Lightfoot, former mayor of Chicago, has called for a blue-ribbon commission on how to best spend the mandatory 30% diversion of police funds to social service agencies that the Democratic U.S. House and Senate mandated. Although Biden said during the 2020 campaign that he did not support defunding the police, he never denounced violence and rioting in the aftermath of the George Floyd protests. This was seen as a green light by progressives in Congress to divert money from law enforcement nationally, or else state and local governments would lose federal funding.

Because Biden has been making fewer and fewer public appearances, his ability to impose his will on Congress has diminished. Rumors have circulated, but his advisers remain tight-lipped about his medical and mental condition.

Identity politics has expanded. Vice President Kamala Harris, who was chosen by Biden because she checked three boxes as a progressive woman of color, was designated by him as the czar in charge of “remedying historical grievances.” The 1619 Project, claiming that America was founded to promote slavery and first pushed by the New York Times, has been adopted as mandatory reading by the majority of public school districts in the country. This was after a guidance letter went out from her office to school districts nationwide, telling them to incorporate the 1619 Project or face liability exposure on civil rights grounds. The fact that the 1619 Project is opposed by liberal and conservative historians alike, and also ignores the abolition movement, are not considered significant by the Biden administration.

In foreign affairs, Biden has attempted to resurrect the Obama-era agreement with Iran to keep it from developing nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. Reversing all the Trump sanctions as a unilateral peace gesture to the regime did not work — Iran has ramped up its 20,000 uranium enrichment centrifuges, which mostly had been in storage prior to the election.

National security adviser Adam Schiff has stated publicly that “Iran must curtail its nuclear efforts or face the consequences.” But when pressed, he could not say what those consequences would be. He said he hoped that discussions with the European Union, Russia, and China about how to deal with the Iranian crisis would find common ground for the first time.

The new Democratic Congress has cut funding to the Department of Defense under pressure from the newly empowered progressive wing of the Democratic Party. The Joint Chiefs of Staff have been reacting to the painful cuts by triaging their defense priorities. Adversaries have shown signs of challenging U.S. interests abroad to exploit new weaknesses in American forces.

The one bright spot in Biden’s America over the last 12 months has been in healthcare. When the Trump administration’s Operation Warp Speed led to a vaccine in record time, Americans, for the most part, decided they were tired of seclusion and took the vaccine. Even Democratic governors lifted Coronavirus restrictions, employees went back to work, schools and universities reopened for the spring semester, sports teams played in front of fans, and the atmosphere of fear went away. Defeating the pandemic is now acknowledged by pundits on both ends of the spectrum as Trump’s finest hour. The vaccine came out two weeks after the November election.

Friday, August 28, 2020

Some Black Lives Matter, but not all!

 

Some Black Lives Matter, but not all!

The reality is that homicides in major cities are not race neutral. 136,000 Americans are shot each year—over one million in the past decade and. 36,000 killed. The shooters were most likely black as well. This is a devastating plague acutely affecting black communities across the country.

The killings continue even as the country faces a Coronavirus pandemic that prompted the governor to place states on a stay-at-home lock-down. No one is to go out unless it is for essentials such as groceries and prescription medications. However, the killings did not stop and are rising rapidly. Again, it is mostly black victims.

When the big city Mayor’s got tough on “bad guys with guns,” homicides in went down. It is likely that most of those detained were black. In these reductions in homicides, the people who benefited most also were African Americans who lost fewer sons, daughters, fathers, and mothers to senseless street violence. More black people lived. However, the mantra has been about cops killing innocent black men.

In the past months, we have had highly destructive riots under the banner of Black Lives Matter. Each was started by the death of a black person at the hands of officer(s). Details in most, factual details are still coming out. Yet, in every case, the commencement of rioting and destruction started immediately.

For most people, it is difficult to balance the outrage of “death by police” with the daily black-on-black homicides that occur daily. This is the conversation we need to have. The riots have only destroyed. They have not produced any closure of the gap of needed understanding and change.

Thursday, August 20, 2020

A Vote For Democrats is like poisoning the Economy!

 California’s Tax Grab 

Joe Biden isn’t the only one with plans to raise taxes. So is the People’s Republic of California. Not only are state lawmakers considering higher taxes on current residents, they also want to tax people who’ve already left the state.

The backdrop to the California tax proposal is a massive $54 billion deficit. Yet rather than cut spending or end giveaways to liberal interest groups, California’s powerful government unions have demanded higher taxes. The current proposal is targeted at the wealthy and would apply to virtually all assets they hold everywhere, even outside of California. Worse, people who left the state within the last 10 years would still be forced to fork over money.

The bill’s liberal backers say it’s all about attacking the rich, but every Californian would get hurt in the end. Higher taxes drive away job creators and can raise less money than intended, leading to calls for even higher taxes on even more people — all without solving the underlying spending problem. Since California is often where the worst ideas get their start, this terrible tax hike needs to fail.

→ Read more: California wealth tax could become first of its kind in US under new proposal (San Francisco Chronicle)

→ Read more: Before proposing a new wealth tax, maybe California should actually try studying it first (Yahoo) 


Wednesday, August 19, 2020

The fight over the Post Office isn’t about the election!

 Pelosi Goes Postal ✉️

The fight over the Post Office isn’t about the election. It’s really about a multi-billion dollar postal bailout that Democrats and their labor union allies have been demanding for years. Now that Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has called the House back into session to pass a $25 billion bailout, Americans need to know that this is nothing more than political theater.

Despite what Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, and the mainstream media have been screaming from the rooftops, the Post Office is perfectly capable of handling election mail. So say its current leaders and former regulators who served under Republican and Democratic administrations. The Post Office has already laid out clear and commonsense recommendations so that voting by mail goes smoothly. As of yesterday, it has also delayed all operational changes until after the election, to "avoid even the appearance of any impact on election mail," according to U.S. Postmaster General Louis DeJoy.

The real issue is that the Post Office has lost $78 billion since 2007 — money that taxpayers have been forced to cover. Rather than support reforms to make the Post Office profitable, the seven unions that represent its workers are demanding tens of billions of dollars to protect the status quo. 

Congressional Democrats have tried to pass a bailout for years, including earlier in the pandemic. But they weren’t talking about the election then. They’re only talking about it now because it makes good headlines. If only they were interested in passing good policy — and reforms that protect the American taxpayers who already shell out far too much for the Post Office.

Sunday, August 16, 2020

All mail in Voting or In Person?

 All mail in Voting or In Person?

 

Some folks are wondering why having “all mail in voting” is so contentious?

 

I say it is because the we have two sides that are unable to agree on much of anything. So, on something as grand as the next president why should we be surprised? We hear shrill comments from both for and against the process. Problem is there is some merit to both.

 

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine released a report in September that urged all states to adopt paper ballots before 2020. Why is paper best for verifying election outcomes?

 

The idea of a post-election paper audit is a form of quality control. You want to have people inspect enough of the paper records to confirm with high statistical probability that the outcome on the paper and the outcome on the electronic results is the same. You’re basically doing a random sample. How large a sample you need depends on how close the election result was. If it was a landslide, a very small sample—maybe even just a few hundred random ballots selected from across the state—could be enough to confirm with high statistical confidence that it was indeed a landslide. But if the election result was a tie, well, you need to inspect every ballot to confirm that it was a tie.

 

The key insight behind auditing as a cyber defense is that if you have a paper record that the voter got to inspect, then that can’t later be changed by a cyber attack. The cost to do so is relatively low. My estimate is it would cost about $25 million a year to audit to high confidence every federal race nationally.

 

Widespread voting by mail poses risks of disenfranchising voters, delaying election results?

Expanding vote-by-mail systems takes an immense amount of equipment, time, staff and funding, yet some want to impose universal vote-by-mail mandates on every state this fall. It has taken Washington state nearly a decade to navigate the complications of expanding vote by mail to every voter. Waving a wand from D.C. cannot change existing nationwide election infrastructure in a matter of months — nor should it.

Widespread voting by mail also risks severely delayed election results. Processing mail ballots is time consuming, particularly in states that have low levels of voting by mail. Due to the large number of mail ballots, California counted votes for over a month after the Democratic primary this spring. California legislators now want ballots to be counted even if received 17 days after the election!

Finally, mail voting is less secure than in-person voting. Voters, particularly in vulnerable populations such as the poor or the elderly, can be coerced to yield their ballots because there is no ballot secrecy. Voters’ ballots can be lost, delayed or thrown out by election officials without the voter knowing.

All Americans deserve an election system that is easy to access, secure and final. Instead, many states offer bloated rolls that include millions of ineligible voters; tabulation of ballots that takes weeks instead of hours; and with ballot harvesting, substantially increase the risk that ballots are coerced from voters, misdirected or completed fraudulently.

Until states bring their election systems up to date and make them secure, automatic vote by mail will continue to pose significant risks of election fraud, delay and lack of finality.

Simply said, we are suffering from an issue of trust; both people and the system.

Simple Americans simply want their vote to count. The hysteria whipped up by the media has NOT assured anyone their vote will be counted or thwarted in some way. All Americans want to feel secure that winners are truly winners and not the product of a failed process.

Thursday, August 13, 2020

Get to know Kamala Harris!

 So what does Kamala Harris actually stand for?


→ Immigration: Like most liberals, Sen. Harris wants to “reexamine” ICE, saying the country should consider “starting from scratch” with the immigration agency. She also supports decriminalizing illegal border crossings.

→ Police: Sen. Harris’s view of law enforcement is still somewhat murky, but it’s not positive. When asked about defunding the police, she called for “reimagining how we do public safety in America.” Earlier this summer, she told The New York Times: "It is status-quo thinking to believe that putting more police on the streets creates more safety. That's wrong. It's just wrong." She also applauded Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti’s plan to slash police funding by $150 million.

→ Abortion: National Review calls Sen. Harris “the most radically pro-abortion candidate to run for president or vice president in the history of our country.” She cosponsored the Women’s Health Protection Act, which would override state’s restrictions on abortion by requiring states to get “preclearance” from the federal government and would destroy states’ rights.

→ Energy/Jobs: Sen. Harris planted herself squarely with the far left of the party, endorsing the Green New Deal and sponsoring an “equity plan” for climate change with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. She would also ban all fracking, killing millions of jobs in the process.


→ Health Care: During the presidential campaign, Sen. Harris sponsored Bernie Sanders’ version of socialized medicine, AKA—Medicare for All, before she backed away from it. She also cavalierly called for abolishing private insurance, saying, “Let’s eliminate all of that.” (She has since “clarified” that position.)

→ Executive Power: As a presidential candidate, Sen. Harris promised to use executive power to sidestep Congress and implement her liberal agenda. The list includes restricting gun rights, legalizing illegal immigrants, and implementing equal pay. 
 
Sen. Harris is now competing for the second most important job in this country. Her liberal positions on the biggest issues facing America matter, and they deserve to be studied and questioned. 

Tuesday, August 4, 2020

A CANADIAN'S VIEW OF PRESIDENT TRUMP

Ernie Meggisen, a Canadian, wrote the following on Donald J. Trump...
 
Make no mistake...I'm not posting this for debate.  I don’t want your
commentary.   ..Unfollow or unfriend me if it makes you feel better.
 
Just consider this...  When you think    that your    President Trump is a
jerk; HE IS...
 
He’s a New Yorker..  He’s crude and can be downright rude.  Some say he's a thin-skinned, arrogant, bombastic ass.  ..No argument, even from most republicans if they're really honest.
 
He gets his feelings hurt and he’s a hot head. ..He hits back; harder.
...And he probably should Tweet less.
 
But let me tell you what else he is...And if you disagree with this that's
your privilege.  ..But in that case my friend, you'd be DEAD WRONG!!!  ..And here's why;
 
He's a guy who DEMANDS performance. ..And more    importantly; RESULTS!!  He spent his entire life in the private sector where you either produce or get your ass fired!
 
He's a guy who asks lots of questions. ..And the questions he asks aren’t cloaked in fancy “political” phrases; they are “Why the hell...?” questions.

 
For decades, the health industry has thrown away billions of face masks after one use. ...Trump asks, “Why are we throwing them away?  Why not sterilize them and use them numerous times?” (Good question.)
 
He’s the guy who gets hospital ships readied in one week when it would have taken a bureaucrat weeks or months or never to get it done.
 
He’s the guy who gets temporary hospitals built in three days.
 
He’s the guy who gets auto industries to restructure to build ventilators in a business that’s highly regulated by agencies that move like sloths.
 
He’s the guy who asks “Why aren’t we using drugs that might work on people who are dying; what the hell do we have to lose?” (Another good question.)
 
He’s the guy who restricted travel from China when the democrats and liberal media were screaming “xenophobia” and “racist.”  ..Now they’re wanting to know why he didn’t react sooner?  When he shut down the borders in the early days of the corona virus, the democrats screamed even LOUDER.  ..Then the rest of the world, including the European Union quickly restricted travel between their own member countries.
 
He’s the guy who campaigned on securing the border - protecting America - in the face of screaming democrats and the liberal media. ...And these SAME leaders of your democrat party (both the Clintons, Chucky Schumer, Harry Reed, Barack Obama, Maxine Waters, Nancy Pelosi et al...)  ALL were in FAVOR of constructing the wall 'UNTIL' Trump had the fortitude to actually do it!!!  
 
Now your comeback might be:  'Oh, he said Mexico was going to pay for it'..  Does that ring a bell?  Well, let me quickly set you straight on this one: Have you compared the old EXTREMELY one-sided NAFTA agreement (negotiated by none other than Jimmy 'peanuts' Carter) with the NEW U.S.M.C. agreement?  Well I have...And let me tell you this:  Mexico will now end up paying much MORE for your goods than you will for theirs...And why you might ask??  Because they're far more    reliant    on the U.S than you are of them.  Yes, it will take time but the bottom line is;...They WILL end up paying for the wall just like Trump said all along!  .Admittedly as a Canadian, this new USMCA is certainly not as beneficial as NAFTA was for both my country and Mexico.  Previously our farmers had a huge monopoly over your farmers
but 'fair is fair'...
 
Has Trump made mistakes? ..Of course.  You can't fault a person for being a human being.  Only ONE perfect man walked this earth 2000 years ago, Jesus!
 
Everyone I know has made mistakes and continues to make them and LEARNS from them.  
 
Trump is and has accomplished more than any U.S. President in my lifetime. (I'm 77 years old)  ..He puts in 18 to 20-hour days. He isn’t hiding in his office; he’s out front - Briefing - ALL Americans almost every day.
 
According to democrats and liberal media, when he offers hope he’s lying, and when he’s straight forward he should be hopeful. It’s a no-win situation for him every day with the haters and naysayers, but he is NOT deterred.
 
I’ll take THIS kind of leadership 6 days a week and TWICE on Sunday over a “polished, nice guy” politician who has seldom or never held a real private sector job in his or her adult life, reads prepared and “written by a speech-writer” speeches from a teleprompter and ONLY answers pre-scripted questions selected for him/her prior to the open forum.  (Sorry folks, but that's EXACTLY what your previous POTUS did.)
 
I am completely mystified as to why this man has been bombarded by the media and liberal electorate EVERY day since back in 2015 when he announced his run for the U.S. presidency.  
 
...And whether you want to believe it or not, Americans, let me tell you one more thing, if you REALLY think that Hillary would have accomplished even a fraction of the things for the betterment of the American public that POTUS Trump has, you've really got your head in the sand.
 
I can only wish he was MY President! - For the good of America, you'd better hope he's re-elected this November.
 
I DO!!!

ShareThis