Netanyahu victory is a message to Republicans
Yesterday’s election in Israel
is a healthy reminder that the vote of the people matters. It is also a useful
reminder that campaigns can make a big difference.
Prime Minister Netanyahu
focused his campaign on national security. He argued that Israel’s very
survival is at stake. His opponents wanted to emphasize the economy.
Forced to choose between their
pocketbook and their lives, a large number of Israelis chose national security.
The bias of the media in this
campaign was obvious and deeply anti-Netanyahu. Before Election Day, there were
predictions that Netanyahu’s party, Likud, would only win 21 seats. Then the
media decided based on exit polls that the race would be a tie with 24 seats
for Likud and 24 for the left.
My guess is that media
hostility to Netanyahu caused a significant number of those polled to refuse to
admit they voted for him.
In the real results, it seems
Likud won 30 seats for a surprisingly big gain in the complex world of Israeli
politics. As the New
York Post reported, “Not only was that shockingly good for
Likud, it was a far stronger showing than in the last election.”
If Netanyahu was the
biggest winner of the day, Speaker John Boehner may have been the second
biggest winner. His decision to invite the Israeli Prime Minister to address a
joint meeting of Congress created a close tie with the newly reelected Israeli
leader.
President Obama publicly expressed disdain for Netanyahu and
sent political operatives (not to mention, according to some allegations,
taxpayer money) to defeat Likud. He lost.
This outcome is a good reminder
that elections matter. The real vote was very different from the pre-election
analysis which was off by 45% in the number of seats won. It was also “a far
cry from the virtual dead heat that television exit polls had reported Tuesday
evening,” as the Jerusalem Post put it.
Sometimes leaders have to
make powerful, clear, emotional arguments buttressed by compelling and
understandable facts. Something that Obama and the Democrats cannot do.
Prime Minister Margaret
Thatcher used to say, "First you win the argument, then you
win the vote."
This outcome has to worry
Hillary Clinton, who saw Barack Obama win the 2007-2008 primary campaign even
though she was far-and-away the frontrunner, in part because she had no
argument to make. She seems to have the same problem today.
Republicans should take heart that a campaign that focuses on
making an important fact based argument can lead to a good election outcome.
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